Study projects 388,300 people will die from Covid-19 in Latin America and the Caribbean by October

SÃO PAULO, SP - 23.06.2020: RECORDE MORTES COVID 19 EM SP - Coveiros work at the burial of a victim of Covid-19 at Cemitério São Luis, south zone of São Paulo, this Tuesday afternoon (23). The state once again set a record for the death toll from the disease. (Photo by Bruno Rocha/Fotoarena/Sipa USA)(Sipa via AP Images)

Around 388,300 people will die from Covid-19 in Latin America and the Caribbean by October, according to a projection by The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington.


“Several Latin American countries are facing explosive trajectories, while others are containing infections effectively,” said IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray in a statement.

“I cannot overemphasize the imperative of mitigation measures, such as mask-wearing and social distancing, especially since South American nations are facing increasing infections due to seasonality of Covid-19, an important factor contributing to the transmission of the virus,” he added.

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According to the forecast, Brazil is set to be the most affected country, with an expected 166,000 deaths, followed by Mexico with 88,000 deaths. Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guatemala and Peru follow this list of most affected countries. 

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The study expects Paraguay, Uruguay and Belize — countries with a current low number of cases– to have fewer than 1,000 deaths by October. 

IHME’s study takes into account factors such as social distancing measures and the percentage of people wearing masks when leaving their homes — a factor that can reduce transmission by 50%.

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